Tesla Saves

Hello,

This is a live dashboard showing the real-world safety impact of Tesla FSD — today, and in the future.

The numbers aren’t exact. No estimate or forecast ever is. But the data is public and the reasoning is sound (and shown at the bottom of the page).

I suspect the only reason Tesla has never published anything like this is that a bunch of anti‑Elon idiots would completely miss the point and sue Tesla for “lying about safety.” Sad.

Anyway. I’m not connected to Tesla. And I think the world should know what Tesla is doing.

It really is wonderful. Thank you, all Tesla people — makers and users.

Lives saved(estimated)1

To dateLive
137Next life saved in 1d 08:21:59
2026 forecast
105Total at end of 2026: 170
2027 forecast
234Total at end of 2027: 404
2030 forecast
3,332Total at end of 2030: 5,679

Serious crashes avoided(estimated)2

To dateLive
15,580Next serious crash avoided in 05:47
2026 forecast
11,945Total at end of 2026: 19,275
2027 forecast
26,463Total at end of 2027: 45,738
2030 forecast
377,337Total at end of 2030: 643,192

Collisions with pedestrians, cyclists & motorcyclists avoided(estimated)3

To dateLive
354Next collision avoided in 01:12:22
2026 forecast
272Total at end of 2026: 439
2027 forecast
603Total at end of 2027: 1,042
2030 forecast
8,596Total at end of 2030: 14,653

Injuries prevented(estimated)4

To dateLive
8,190Next injury prevented in 19:29
2026 forecast
6,279Total at end of 2026: 10,133
2027 forecast
13,911Total at end of 2027: 24,044
2030 forecast
198,363Total at end of 2030: 338,121

Medical insurance claims saved(estimated)5

To dateLive
$122,619,192+$3.29 every second
2026 forecast
$94,002,768Total at end of 2026: $151,690,631
2027 forecast
$208,258,746Total at end of 2027: $359,949,377
2030 forecast
$2,969,589,923Total at end of 2030: $5,061,831,090

Life insurance claims saved(estimated)6

To dateLive
$11,222,085+$0.30 every second
2026 forecast
$8,603,116Total at end of 2026: $13,882,698
2027 forecast
$19,059,802Total at end of 2027: $32,942,500
2030 forecast
$271,776,317Total at end of 2030: $463,257,838

Crash-related tax dollars saved(estimated)7

To dateLive
$129,491,005+$3.48 every second
2026 forecast
$99,270,862Total at end of 2026: $160,191,663
2027 forecast
$219,929,964Total at end of 2027: $380,121,627
2030 forecast
$3,136,011,404Total at end of 2030: $5,345,505,754

Notes

Tesla may argue that the number of lives saved should be higher than the current 137. And if we purely compare all FSD miles with all U.S. miles in one lump, the number of lives saved would be higher: 167 to date. But crash rates differ a lot by road type: highways are much safer per mile than city streets, for every car. And FSD does more of its driving on highways than the average car: 59% of its miles, against about 40%. Lumping all roads together gives FSD credit for that easier mix. So it felt more accurate to compare FSD with the average U.S. car on highways and on city and other roads separately, then weight each by where FSD actually drives. That gives 137.

Miles per serious crashAverage U.S. carFSDFSD safer by
Highways1,355,7949,734,2297.2×
City and other roads526,4763,538,0636.7×

“To date” counts every mile driven on FSD (Supervised) and updates live. “2026 forecast” adds the miles driven so far this year to a forecast for the rest of it. Later years are forecasts. “Total at end of” adds everything since FSD launched, up to the end of that year. Dollar amounts are in today’s dollars.

  1. 1Lives saved (estimated)

    In 2023 the U.S. had 41,025 traffic deaths and an estimated 4,646,404 serious crashes, so about 1 in 113 serious crashes (0.88%) is fatal. Lives saved = serious crashes avoided × 0.88%, or one life for every 110 million FSD miles.

  2. 2Serious crashes avoided (estimated)

    Tesla reports how many miles are driven between serious (airbag-deployment) crashes, for highways and for city and other roads (see the top of these notes). Weighted by where FSD drives, it avoids 1.03 serious crashes per million miles. To date FSD has driven 15.1 billion miles.

  3. 3Collisions with pedestrians, cyclists & motorcyclists avoided (estimated)

    Tesla also reports collisions by what was hit. FSD hits a pedestrian, cyclist or motorcyclist once every 978 million miles, against once every 40.7 million for the average U.S. car: 0.024 collisions avoided per million miles. Tesla does not split this by road type. Many of these collisions are also serious crashes, so the two rows overlap.

  4. 4Injuries prevented (estimated)

    In 2023, 2,442,581 people were injured in police-reported crashes, or 0.53 per serious crash. Injuries prevented = serious crashes avoided × 0.53. This counts every severity. About 8% of them are serious to critical (MAIS 3–5): 631 to date.

  5. 5Medical insurance claims saved (estimated)

    In 2019, crashes caused $30.9 billion of lifetime medical costs across all injuries and deaths, or $1,007,145 per crash death in today’s dollars (up 19% for medical inflation). 88.5% of that is paid by private insurers and by Medicare, Medicaid and other public programs, so claims saved = lives saved × $891,323.

  6. 6Life insurance claims saved (estimated)

    $22.0 trillion of life insurance was in force in the U.S. at the end of 2024. Spread across every adult, insured or not, that is an expected payout of $81,573 per death. 52% of adults own life insurance. Claims saved = lives saved × $81,573.

  7. 7Crash-related tax dollars saved (estimated)

    In 2019, federal, state and local governments paid $29.5 billion of crash costs: public medical programs, emergency services, lost tax revenue and public assistance. Spread across U.S. serious crashes and adjusted for inflation (up 31%), that is $8,310 per serious crash. Tax dollars saved = serious crashes avoided × $8,310. Medicare and Medicaid payments are counted here and in medical claims, so the two rows overlap.

  8. 8Forecasts (2026, 2027, 2030)

    FSD’s daily mileage grew 2.42× over the past year, from 14.4 million to 35.0 million miles a day. Forecasts assume that growth continues every year and that FSD’s crash rates stay where they are today.

    YearFSD milesShare of U.S. driving
    202611.6 billion0.3%
    202725.6 billion0.8%
    2030365.2 billion10.5%

    The further out, the less certain: keeping this pace until 2030 needs many more cars running FSD than exist today. Unsupervised driving and robotaxis could speed growth up; running out of eager buyers could slow it down.

Limitations

  • Tesla’s data is self-reported.

    It is not independently verified. It is the only source of FSD mileage and crash rates.

  • The baseline is the average U.S. car.

    Compared with the same Teslas driven manually with their standard safety features on, FSD would have saved about 30 lives to date. With those safety features off, a Tesla on the highway crashes about as often as the average car.

  • Today’s crash rates are applied to all past miles.

    Early FSD versions were less capable, so the to-date figures are likely too high.

  • Deaths and costs use U.S. averages per crash.

    Teslas protect their occupants better than the average car, so fewer avoided crashes may have been fatal.

  • Dollar figures are averages, not claims data.

    No insurer or government has reported these savings. The dollar rows overlap and should not be added together.

Sources